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Energy Loan Risk Modeling: Why Simulation Makes Sense

Facing continued energy price volatility and tightening requirements for risk estimation and disclosure, banks need stronger analytical guidance to make their way.

Recent turbulence in the energy industries has sent shockwaves across North American banks, triggering a cascade of questions from investors, regulators and boards of directors. Stakeholders are clamoring for more information on lending exposures, compounding the pressure on senior management to justify decisions on loss reserves. But what about decision-making and communication tools for commercial lending risk? In most cases they fall far short of what is needed. On the one hand, current risk models ...

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